Here's a conundrum (or a chimera, not sure which): It seems evident that, in the evolution of humans as social organisms, religion has been favored by natural selection. The reasons for this appear quite obvious to this observer:
1. Religion unites groups for purposes of cooperative ventures ranging from basic survival to war and other conflicts with competing groups. There seems to be no force that provides a more powerful social glue than shared beliefs, with the possible exceptions of shared threats and shared enemies.
2. The human brain has evolved to a level of complexity such that our minds are capable of creating a great deal of mischief --- the notion of "self" vs. "other," the awareness of our own mortality, the ability to imagine possible futures and ruminate about the past, etc. However, our minds have not evolved to the point where we are automatically able to see the foolishness of our own preoccupations with past, future, and self-concept, so we desperately search for answers to questions that might otherwise plague us. Religion fulfills this need for most individuals.
3. The human social organism has evolved as a hierarchical system in virtually every known society. The most powerful leaders have traditionally been those who ascend to the highest "spiritual" status, who are believed to have special access to mystical insights. From tribal shamans to the Pope, from the village guru to the ayatollah --- power accumulates in those with religious status.
4. Given that life is unpredictable and our day to day survival hinges on uncontrolled factors such as weather and disease, spiritual leaders and the rituals of religion have provided humanity with the sense of control that we naturally seek. If the crops fail, we can blame witches or our own sins, we can do a rain dance or sacrifice a child to the sun god. The illusion of control is an instinctive need; religion provides an illusory but potent sense of control to the extent that one clings fervently to one's beliefs.
In "modern times" we have been treated to technological methods of achieving some control (heating and AC, irrigation systems, etc.) and we have found other methods of binding people together in cooperative groups (shared economic interests, shared secular ideals, shared systems for protection from external threats, etc.) However, very few people have let go of religious beliefs.
I propose that religion will continue to be a dominant force in human societies for countless generations because:
(a.) Control is impossible to attain; real and perceived threats persist regardless of our best efforts to contain them, and new threats continually arise;
(b.) Most people lack the imagination to find meaning and purpose in the absence of mythology and mysticism, nor is there any particular force in the mind of most individuals that would motivate them to question their mystical beliefs;
(c.) Religion has not lost its power to unite large numbers of people for purposes of creating a sense of belonging to the larger community, personal meaning, and imposing their will on other groups through peaceful political processes (at best) or war (at worst);
(d.) There are no selective advantages to atheism or agnosticism as long as religion does not interfere with scientific and technological methods for adapting to changes in the factors that contribute to survival and procreation.
To summarize --- The fact that every society has evolved with some form of shared mystical belief is evidence that such beliefs hold an evolutionary advantage, and there is little or no evidence that this will change at any time in the foreseeable future. However, religious fanaticism (e.g., fundamentalist Christians and Muslims) will be held in check by forces that naturally act against the unrestrained global domination of a single fanatical ideology. Extremist beliefs are naturally held in check by the same factors that perpetuate religion.
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